The recent conference of Egypt’s ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) suggested that at long last the Mubarak government may actually be ready to implement reform. While economic reform has been on the Egyptian agenda since the days of former President Anwar Sadat, whose open door policy was supposed to rejuvenate the nation’s moribund economy, little has been done, especially after President Sadat’s assassination in 1981, when internal security became the over-riding priority.
After Sadat’s death, President Hosni Mubarak assumed the presidency and he made it apparent that political stability was his prime concern. Though international organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the European Union all urged the Egyptian government to liberate the country’s centralized economy, Egypt’s response was to agree in principle but drag its feet in the implementation. Economic stagnation was deemed preferable to achieve political instability.
Inevitably, economic conditions for the masses became worse rather than better. Foreign direct investment dried up; unemployment grew; successive depreciations of the nation’s currency undermined what little economic progress was made; and Egypt’s bewildering maze of red tape plus widespread corruption deterred all but the foolhardy and those with “connections” from doing any kind of business at all.
Throughout, the security forces maintained heavy-handed control but only at the expense of alienating the masses. Recently, it became abundantly clear that while the Egyptian government was able to wield a very heavy stick to keep the people in line, it would be desirable to dangle a few carrots as well.
So it was at this month’s NDP conference that several measures were announced that were designed to please the people and stimulate the economy. Income and corporate taxes are to be slashed, with top rates capped at 20%; Egypt’s notoriously high import tariffs are to be radically reduced, which means that cars will cost some $5,000 less; privatization of the nation’s creaking banking system will be speeded up and a maze of bureaucratic red tape will be either cut or simplified.
For many, these reforms demonstrate the increased influence of President Mubarak’s son - Gamal - and his young, reformist friends and the defeat of the old guard, who had constantly counseled caution, believing that economic reform would lead inevitably to political reform and hence, political instability. This, of course, may still turn out to be true but for the moment the reformists have the spotlight. However, while Gamal’s supporters may have had their spirits lifted by the conference, still left unanswered is the question of whether he will take over from his father as President of Egypt.
The NDP conference provided few clues. Gamal was granted the spotlight and pundits predicted his rapid elevation to head the NDP Secretariat, replacing former Minister of Information and regime stalwart, Safwat Sherif. Whether he is actually in line to take over from his father remains tantalizingly vague.
President Mubarak still refuses to be drawn on who will be his preferred or likely successor. In fact, he has gone out of his way to dampen speculation about his son’s chances, saying Gamal was not even interested in politics. When he assumed the presidency after the death of Sadat, Mr. Mubarak refused to name a vice-president and has maintained this stance ever since, even though pressured within Egypt and from the outside. Successive American administrations have frequently taken him to task over this issue, fearing a dangerous power vacuum when he departs. Mr. Mubarak’s response has always been the same: the Egyptian constitution makes clear how his successor will be chosen and he would prefer to leave it that way. Article 82 decrees that in the event of the president being unable to fulfill his duties the Vice President will take over. If there is no Vice President, then Article 84 empowers the Speaker of Parliament (presently Mubarak stalwart, Fathi Sorour) to convene members, who within sixty days must choose someone who will be endorsed by a referendum.
This, of course, has not prevented Egypt’s chattering classes from trying to second guess who President Mubarak’s successor is likely to be. Years ago, it was Defense Minister Abd al-Halim Abu Ghazala, and when he fell out of favor, it was his successor, Field Marshall Mohammed Hussain al-Tantawi. Now, the debate focuses on Presdent Mubarak’s son, Gamal and the Head of Egypt’s Intelligence Services, Omar Suleiman, whose profile has risen as a result of his role as the president’s interlocutor with the Palestinians. He is also said to be trusted by the Americans.
Although the recent NDP conference would seem to have enhanced Gamal’s presidential prospects, few would be ready to stake all on his achieving that goal. Those who know him describe him as “a nice intelligent boy,” draw attention to the fact that at 41 he remains unmarried and display a notable absence of enthusiasm when assessing his talents as a leader. It is also pointed out that on trip to Washington with his father a couple of years ago, he left congressmen and journalists alike singularly under whelmed. Moreover, ask most Egyptians to identify the “axis of evil” and they will point to the US and Israel, rather than Iran, Syria and North Korea. In the current climate in Egypt, Gamal may be too much of a westerner for the masses to willingly accept, in spite of the generally high esteem in which he is held. This has led many to suggest that while Gamal may indeed become president, real power will reside with a military man (or military men). Gamal will simply be the highly visible, westernized sophisticate, to be trotted out for the benefit of international bankers and western human rights organizations. Real men will be taking care of business.
Perhaps the greatest obstacle Gamal faces to becoming president is the fact that Egypt prides itself on being a modern democracy and the idea of a hereditary succession is anathema to most of the people. When Syria’s Hafez al-Assad died in June 2000 and the Syrian parliament was hurriedly convened to change the constitution and anoint his son, Bashar, as his successor, there were a number of derisive commentaries in the Egyptian press. What was acceptable in Syria would not be tolerated in Egypt.
So, while the recent NDP conference may have burnished Gamal’s presidential credentials, he is still some way away from the prize. However, it is widely expected that President Mubarak next year will continue to soldier on and seek a fifth term as president which, even though he is 76, he would most likely get. In the meantime Gamal would have more time to prove himself and demonstrate that besides being reform minded, he is also up to being president in a tough neighborhood.

John Monroe
Al-Bawaba.Com
October 03, 2004